Feng Jiaxin

College of Science, Northeast Forestry University (NEFU)

Abstract：

To investigate the catalytic effect of extreme discourse on public opinion intensity in gender-related incidents, this study examines four cases: the “Wuhan University Library Virtual Sexual Harassment Incident,” the “Late-Night Escort of 100 Female Students Home Incident,” the “Shanxi Female Graduate Student Kidnapped for 13 Years Incident,” and the “Changsha Villa Surrogacy Incident.” Data were scraped from three social media platforms. Based on daily public opinion intensity and the proportion of extreme discourse following each incident, empirical analysis was conducted using Pearson correlation analysis, cross-correlation function (CCF) analysis, Granger causality testing, and ARIMAX forecasting models.The results indicate that the catalytic effect of extreme discourse in gender-related public incidents exhibits event differentiation. Only in the “Wuhan University Library Virtual Sexual Harassment Incident” did extreme discourse exert a significant positive catalytic effect on public opinion intensity , with a causal relationship established . Among the remaining three categories of events, extreme speech showed no significant correlation with public opinion intensity nor any causal relationship, indicating no catalytic effect. Differences in the public nature, controversy, and group relevance of events may be the core reasons for this divergence in catalytic effects. This research provides empirical insights for guiding public discourse and managing extreme speech in gender-related public events.

Key Words：

gender-related public events; extreme rhetoric; public opinion intensity; catalytic effect; Granger causality test; ARIMAX model