The Impact of Flexible Employment on Residents' Fertility Intentions

Yang Chen

School of Finance and Public Administration, Anhui University of Finance & Economics

Abstract：

Against the dual backdrop of persistently declining fertility rates and the rapid expansion of flexible employment, the intrinsic relationship between flexible employment and fertility intentions has become a critical issue in population economics. Drawing on cost–utility theory, household production theory, and wealth flow theory, this paper constructs a dual-mechanism analytical framework of "time release versus protection deficit" to systematically explain the theoretical logic through which flexible employment affects residents' fertility intentions. The study finds that flexible employment, by granting workers greater flexibility in working hours, releases time resources that can be allocated to family care and alleviates work–family conflict, thereby generating positive incentives for fertility intentions. At the same time, however, flexible workers generally face inadequate social security coverage, particularly low participation rates in basic old-age insurance. This institutional exclusion weakens the sense of future security for old age, reinforces precautionary saving behavior and reliance on "raising children for old-age support," and thus exerts a potential suppressive effect on fertility intentions. The net effect depends on the relative intensity of these two mechanisms. The theoretical roots of heterogeneity lie in differences in resource endowments, social roles, and developmental expectations across various groups. This paper proposes that, while releasing the "time dividend," efforts should also be made to address the "protection deficit," so as to align flexible employment with the construction of a fertility-friendly society.

Key Words：

 flexible employment; fertility intentions; working hours; basic old-age insurance; work–family conflict